This story first appeared in Adam’s Biotech Scorecard, a subscriber-only newsletter. STAT+ subscribers can sign up here to get it delivered to their inbox.
This is the 44th, and last, edition of the Biotech Scorecard newsletter in 2025.
By the way, in case you’re wondering, I will be making a pistachio cake with cream cheese frosting for Christmas dinner.
The old saw, the new saw
The old saw: Biotech will never attract a meaningful share of generalist investor capital because the sector is overstuffed with risky, development-stage companies that lose a ton of money.
The new saw: Development-stage biotechs are maturing. Their drugs are winning approvals and independent commercial launches are starting to deliver meaningful revenue. The sector is turning profitable, reaching an inflection point that generalist investors will notice.
Numbers support the optimistic outlook. Morgan Stanley looked at 86 small- and mid-cap biotechs in its research universe and found, on aggregate, the group was expected to lose nearly $900 million next year, but then earn (on an adjusted basis) $4.8 billion in 2027. Profit forecasts for the group continue to grow, reaching nearly $40 billion in 2030.
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